Mo and the HOF (March 25, 2004)
A good piece by Namee.
Do you know how few IP Mo has pitched in his career? It's 3 digits, and starts with a 6. I was shocked seeing that. On the flip side, he's been sensational when he has pitched. With his leverage, he's about 25 wins above an average pitcher.... in the regular season. Anyone in the 30-35 level is borderline HOF. On the other hand, as sensational as he has been in the regular season, he's been far better in the post-season. Personally, I would triple-weight all post-season performance. (No justification for the triple.. it could be double, or 10 times.) Single-weighting and he's borderline. Double-weighting, and he just clears it. Triple-weighting? He's an easy choice.
Mo's chances are completely based on how much weight you give the post-season.
--posted by TangoTiger at 10:21 AM EDT
Posted 10:44 a.m.,
March 25, 2004
(#1) -
Nightengale
How can you assume the same leverage for Mo's first two years when he was a starter and a setup man. That's about a quarter of his total innings.
Posted 10:51 a.m.,
March 25, 2004
(#2) -
tangotiger
I agree that you should not weight all his innings the same. I was basing the "25 wins" from here:
http://www.livewild.org/bb/toppit.html
This uses win expectancy, and has Mo as +21 wins above average through 2002. So, he's probably around +24 to +25 through 2003.
In the playoffs, he's about +40 runs above average, which for his usage pattern is probably about +8 wins. Single-weighting, he's borderline.
Posted 11:17 a.m.,
March 25, 2004
(#3) -
mommy
despite loyalty to his boss, i wish namee wouldn't keep bringing up win shares w/ regards to relief pitchers. i still like win shares, though tango and others have made clear some of the flaws they have. but they're just way too arbitrary when it comes to relief pitchers to mean a whole lot.
also, we all realize ERA for a reliever is not quite as informative for relievers as for starters (though still useful). it would be interesting if he also took a look at rivera's and others' WHIP. or maybe some of those reliever tools that prospectus uses. (though i'm not that familiar with them...do any of them measure a repeatable skill, or does one just rate well if he keeps coming into games with the bases loaded and 2 outs and strands the runners, or something like that?)
Posted 12:25 p.m.,
March 25, 2004
(#4) -
VoiceOfUnreason
Lets see, if you figure an average hall of fame career at 18 seasons, with three players being inducted every two seasons and one third of those being pitchers, there ought to be about nine HOF pitchers playing right now.
Clemens, Maddux, Martinez, Johnson?, one of the A's, one of the Cubs, Rivera, one of the maybes (Mussina, Schilling, Brown, Smoltz...)
Posted 2:03 p.m.,
March 25, 2004
(#5) -
Feeling like an idiot
I was expecting a piece on Mo Vaughn.
Posted 2:26 p.m.,
March 25, 2004
(#6) -
studes
(homepage)
Not to be a Win Shares apologist, but Matthew only starts his article with Win Shares, and then goes onto other stats. I do think that HOF qualification is one of the best uses of Win Shares.
I think we're all pretty certain that Win Shares overvalues today's relievers. Arguably, every statistic overvalues relievers, as we discussed in a previous Primer discussion (see homepage link).
I agree that Mo has been lights out in the postseason, but he's also had many, many more opportunities than other players, because of the teams he's played on. How much credit should he be given for that?
Posted 2:51 p.m.,
March 25, 2004
(#7) -
dlf
Lets see, if you figure an average hall of fame career at 18 seasons, with three players being inducted every two seasons and one third of those being pitchers, there ought to be about nine HOF pitchers playing right now.
From 1990 to 2003, 52 individuals have been elected to the HoF. Thats about 3.7 per year, not 1.5. 12 of those were elected as managers, league officials or umpires. But even at 40 inductees, that is ~2.9 per year, almost twice your estimate.
Clemens, Maddux, Martinez, Johnson?, one of the A's, one of the Cubs, Rivera, one of the maybes (Mussina, Schilling, Brown, Smoltz...)
Not to argue for or against his merits, I think that absent a Rose-like revelation, Tom Glavine will walk into the Hall. 250 wins now, likely to finish ~275. 2 Cy Youngs. Part of a famous rotation. Incredibly amounts of post-season exposure.
Posted 4:19 p.m.,
March 25, 2004
(#8) -
Chris DeRosa
Studes, re: #6,
You raise a good point, but I am reluctant to discount Rivera's postseason stats too much on account of his having more opportunities. For one thing, it is the inequality of opportunity that makes postseason performance a secondary consideration to begin with. I think it's understood that all players don't have equal access to postseason games, and that's why it's not in the first-cut calculation of a guy's Hall of Fame case.
Second, each opportunity was not just a chance for Rivera to reduce his postseason ERA, but also a chance to mess it up. If we were talking about Dave Justice's postseason RBIs, or Bernie Williams' postseason doubles, we'd cut them down pretty quick with the opportunity argument. But here we have a player who sustained over many opportunities a performance quality matched by few postseason players in much smaller samples. As far as the career as a whole, there may not be enough cake there, but I can't argue with the icing.
Posted 5:49 p.m.,
March 25, 2004
(#9) -
David Smyth
---" I was expecting a piece on Mo Vaughn."
And I was expecting a piece on Willy Mo Pena. :-)
Posted 7:15 p.m.,
March 25, 2004
(#10) -
VoiceOfUnreason
"But even at 40 inductees, that is ~2.9 per year, almost twice your estimate."
For reasons of personal taste, I tend to ignore the various committee inductions. By my tally, 1990-2004 sees 23 BBWAA selections in 15 years (1990-2004), so my algorithm was off by half an induction. VHOF has 22 or 23 slots during that time period as well.
I could have made clearer the standard I was using.
Posted 11:18 p.m.,
March 25, 2004
(#11) -
Robert S
How many high leverage innings has Rivera thrown in his career? How does that compare to the HOF-caliber starters of his era? The best non-HOF starters?
Posted 4:39 p.m.,
March 26, 2004
(#12) -
PhillyBooster
Rivera will completely look different in 10 years when the HoF committee gets to him.
Will he reach 1000 innings?
If so, where will he fall on the ERA+ career leaderboard.
He'd currently be #1, but what if 5 more seasons drop him down to "only" a 150 ERA+?
Suddenly he's looking pretty much like Dan Quisenberry, or half of Hoyt Wilhelm.
Posted 9:08 p.m.,
March 27, 2004
(#13) -
2001 Arizona Diamondbacks
he's been particularly lights-out in the postseason.
Ahem.