Sabremetrics 101: Run Frequency Matrix, 1999-2002

Frequency of actual Runs Scored, following each base/out state to end of inning

By Tangotiger


The following table presents the rate of the number of runs that scored, from that base/out state, to the end of that inning. All data is from 1999-2002.

Note: All partial innings are excluded. All home innings in the 9th or later are excluded.

 
Base Outs Runs
0 1 2 3 4 5+
Empty 0 0.707 0.154 0.074 0.035 0.016 0.013
Empty 1 0.827 0.101 0.042 0.017 0.007 0.005
Empty 2 0.923 0.051 0.017 0.005 0.002 0.001
 
1st 0 0.563 0.176 0.132 0.067 0.034 0.028
1st 1 0.717 0.123 0.091 0.04 0.017 0.013
1st 2 0.864 0.062 0.049 0.016 0.006 0.003
 
2nd 0 0.368 0.348 0.142 0.076 0.035 0.03
2nd 1 0.594 0.23 0.098 0.045 0.018 0.014
2nd 2 0.777 0.147 0.049 0.017 0.006 0.003
 
3rd 0 0.136 0.542 0.164 0.09 0.035 0.033
3rd 1 0.338 0.478 0.106 0.045 0.018 0.014
3rd 2 0.737 0.187 0.05 0.017 0.006 0.004
 
1st_2nd 0 0.359 0.219 0.165 0.127 0.07 0.059
1st_2nd 1 0.574 0.161 0.11 0.088 0.038 0.028
1st_2nd 2 0.769 0.106 0.058 0.044 0.015 0.008
 
1st_3rd 0 0.124 0.417 0.174 0.142 0.076 0.067
1st_3rd 1 0.345 0.37 0.119 0.092 0.042 0.031
1st_3rd 2 0.715 0.151 0.061 0.049 0.016 0.008
 
2nd_3rd 0 0.144 0.249 0.307 0.147 0.079 0.074
2nd_3rd 1 0.305 0.285 0.218 0.101 0.053 0.038
2nd_3rd 2 0.724 0.054 0.141 0.049 0.021 0.011
 
Loaded 0 0.128 0.255 0.211 0.143 0.134 0.13
Loaded 1 0.33 0.252 0.151 0.106 0.093 0.068
Loaded 2 0.675 0.092 0.105 0.055 0.048 0.025
 

 


As always, a big thank you to Ray Kerby for providing his A.S.S. program to parse through the play-by-play data.