Sabremetrics 101: Run Expectancy Matrix, 1999-2002

Actual Runs Scored, following each base/out state to end of inning

By Tangotiger

The following table presents the average number of runs that scored, from that base/out state, to the end of that inning. All data is from 1999-2002.

Note: All partial innings are excluded. All home innings in the 9th or later are excluded.

(In the next release, I will present the number of times that exactly 0,1,2,3, 4, 5+ runs scored, from each base/out state.)

 
RE 99-02 0 1 2
Empty 0.555 0.297 0.117
1st 0.953 0.573 0.251
2nd 1.189 0.725 0.344
3rd 1.482 0.983 0.387
1st_2nd 1.573 0.971 0.466
1st_3rd 1.904 1.243 0.538
2nd_3rd 2.052 1.467 0.634
Loaded 2.417 1.65 0.815

 

As always, a big thank you to Ray Kerby for providing his software to parse through the play-by-play data.